Recent Africa InDepth

Exploring at the frontier: Africa taking centre stage again

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Sub-Saharan Africa’s frontier exploration acreage is squarely back on the radar of international oil companies as a healthier outlook for oil and gas prices fuels a resurgence in risk appetite. The last three years have seen a collapse in investment in exploration as most companies have sought to cut costs, streamline operations and reduce risk. …   Read more

Reciprocal investment model will be key to winning Africa’s hand

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China’s latest play for greater influence in Africa involves advancing $60 billion in aid and loans to African nations without political conditionality. Announced at the just-concluded Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing, which drew the attendance of more than 40 African Heads of State, this move comes hot on the heels of high-profile state …   Read more

Ramaphoria losing steam?

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South African President Cyril Ramaphosa recently celebrated 100 days in office, three months after Jacob Zuma was pressured by the ANC to resign or face impeachment. Ramaphosa faced a tough battle to secure the ANC’s backing to succeed Zuma, with the leadership contest exposing deep divisions within the ruling party. But in the large, the …   Read more

DRC: Cobalt Supply Chain Pressures Rising

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As the DRC seemingly heads towards elections slated for 23 December this year (see The DRC: No Pressure, No Problem), the only other topic as popular as Kabila’s succession or candidacy in business circles is the flurry of mining activity in the country. Government contract renegotiations, miners’ volatile stock prices, disputes and injunctions, the upturn in …   Read more

Tanzania’s evolving investment environment

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Since the election of President John Magufuli, the Tanzanian government has at times been accused of a myopic focus on revenue collection at the cost of business growth. Businesses in particular have complained that policy flux and a weight of fiscal and regulatory enforcement activities has not been accompanied by a constructive dialogue around reform. …   Read more

The DRC: no pressure, no problem

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The DRC’s elections are scheduled for December 2018, after multiple delays. With President Joseph Kabila unable to run again without a constitutional amendment, his options are limited to appointing a successor or delaying the election again on account of several legitimate reasons. Recurring unrest in Kinshasa and growing violent conflicts in multiple provinces are the …   Read more

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Recent Blog Posts

Kenya Election scenarios and timelines

The 2017 Kenyan general elections take place next week but uncertainties remain around the likely scenarios and timelines for the polls. With high scope for a contested outcome prompting both legal petitions and political dialogue, there remain credible conditions under which it will take several weeks for a new government to take office and consolidate …   Read more

Prospects for stability

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With just over a week to go before the general elections, political parties are scrambling to invigorate their electoral campaigns as they seek to drive turnout and support for the vote. Meanwhile, the contested atmosphere and seeming organisational deficiencies of the polls raises significant concerns over the potential conduct of the election, and the reaction …   Read more

‘All politics is local’: The importance of down-ticket races in 2017

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As the 8 August general elections approach, much of the attention is focused on the compelling presidential contest between President Uhuru Kenyatta and his opposition challenger, Raila Odinga. But for lower levels of political office, the competition is likely to be no less fierce with a range of influential posts for MPs and County Governors in particular …   Read more

Odinga’s final stand for the top post

Over the years, he has become skilled at opposition politics, initially gaining prominence as a kingmaker for former President Mwai Kibaki in 2002 under a coalition party. This was followed by his contribution to creating the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) which in the 2005 referendum, successfully opposed the implementation of a new constitution. His greatest …   Read more

Dynamics shaping the Kenyan electoral landscape

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africapractice Guinea Election Media Coverage

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Guineans went to the polls on Sunday 11 October. Although tainted by organisational shortcomings and allegations of fraud, the country’s second democratic election has been labelled broadly free and fair. The Constitutional Court will now have it’s final say, with a victory by incumbent President Condé in the first round all but certain. Our Guinea analysts were on …   Read more

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Six months after we first presented our initial analysis on the parties and people shaping the run-up to Nigeria’s 2015 elections, including the arrival on-scene of the All Progressives Congress (APC) as the most substantive challenger to the ruling Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) since 1999, we examine how the two major parties are faring in some of the key states and geopolitical zones and provide insight into the current critical political changes that indicate the scales are now tipping in favour of the PDP. In that first note we had alluded to the fault lines within the APC and their potential to be the party’s undoing unless properly managed by its leadership. The defection of some state party leaders to the ruling PDP opened up those cracks and since then the opposition party has been losing ground, giving the PDP ample opportunity to take the lead. With over 7 months still to go, much can still change, but momentum has certainly shifted. The rebasing exercise in February, which doubled the size of Nigeria’s economy, has left observers in no doubt as to the country’s economic potential but the stakes represented by such potentially competitive general elections are quite high for the economy. The new CBN Governor Godwin Emefiele has said the apex bank will closely monitor individuals’ and government spending in the lead up to the elections, but the broader risks to business of social unrest and political instability, given the already ongoing bloody insurgency in the North-East, remain very present.   Read more

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