Recent Africa InDepth

Sall II: Harder, better, faster, stronger

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President Macky Sall’s first-round victory in the country’s recent presidential election re-asserts his strong position and provides him with a clear mandate to deliver the second phase of his economic plan. Sall now intends to make full use of this renewed mandate to accelerate key reforms. He has already set the tone in the very …   Read more

Ethiopia’s changing of the guard

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Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s reform agenda has been both fast-paced and far-reaching. Since coming to office less than a year ago, he has begun a reconciliation process with Eritrea after decades of conflict and cross-border animosity, put in place a young cabinetwith 50% female representation, released up to 60,000 political prisoners, unbanned opposition parties including those which had been designated as terrorist organisations by …   Read more

The African Year in 2019

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As we begin the new year, organisations in Africa are facing a host of strategic risks and uncertainties as well as opportunities. The continent’s two biggest economies, Nigeria and South Africa, will both be embarking on crucial election cycles which will set the tone for government going forward. Beyond politics, reform agendas in Ethiopia, Angola …   Read more

Exploring at the frontier: Africa taking centre stage again

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Sub-Saharan Africa’s frontier exploration acreage is squarely back on the radar of international oil companies as a healthier outlook for oil and gas prices fuels a resurgence in risk appetite. The last three years have seen a collapse in investment in exploration as most companies have sought to cut costs, streamline operations and reduce risk. …   Read more

Reciprocal investment model will be key to winning Africa’s hand

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China’s latest play for greater influence in Africa involves advancing $60 billion in aid and loans to African nations without political conditionality. Announced at the just-concluded Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing, which drew the attendance of more than 40 African Heads of State, this move comes hot on the heels of high-profile state …   Read more

Ramaphoria losing steam?

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South African President Cyril Ramaphosa recently celebrated 100 days in office, three months after Jacob Zuma was pressured by the ANC to resign or face impeachment. Ramaphosa faced a tough battle to secure the ANC’s backing to succeed Zuma, with the leadership contest exposing deep divisions within the ruling party. But in the large, the …   Read more

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Recent Blog Posts

Kenya Election scenarios and timelines

The 2017 Kenyan general elections take place next week but uncertainties remain around the likely scenarios and timelines for the polls. With high scope for a contested outcome prompting both legal petitions and political dialogue, there remain credible conditions under which it will take several weeks for a new government to take office and consolidate …   Read more

Prospects for stability

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With just over a week to go before the general elections, political parties are scrambling to invigorate their electoral campaigns as they seek to drive turnout and support for the vote. Meanwhile, the contested atmosphere and seeming organisational deficiencies of the polls raises significant concerns over the potential conduct of the election, and the reaction …   Read more

‘All politics is local’: The importance of down-ticket races in 2017

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As the 8 August general elections approach, much of the attention is focused on the compelling presidential contest between President Uhuru Kenyatta and his opposition challenger, Raila Odinga. But for lower levels of political office, the competition is likely to be no less fierce with a range of influential posts for MPs and County Governors in particular …   Read more

Odinga’s final stand for the top post

Over the years, he has become skilled at opposition politics, initially gaining prominence as a kingmaker for former President Mwai Kibaki in 2002 under a coalition party. This was followed by his contribution to creating the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) which in the 2005 referendum, successfully opposed the implementation of a new constitution. His greatest …   Read more

Dynamics shaping the Kenyan electoral landscape

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africapractice Guinea Election Media Coverage

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Guineans went to the polls on Sunday 11 October. Although tainted by organisational shortcomings and allegations of fraud, the country’s second democratic election has been labelled broadly free and fair. The Constitutional Court will now have it’s final say, with a victory by incumbent President Condé in the first round all but certain. Our Guinea analysts were on …   Read more

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Six months after we first presented our initial analysis on the parties and people shaping the run-up to Nigeria’s 2015 elections, including the arrival on-scene of the All Progressives Congress (APC) as the most substantive challenger to the ruling Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) since 1999, we examine how the two major parties are faring in some of the key states and geopolitical zones and provide insight into the current critical political changes that indicate the scales are now tipping in favour of the PDP. In that first note we had alluded to the fault lines within the APC and their potential to be the party’s undoing unless properly managed by its leadership. The defection of some state party leaders to the ruling PDP opened up those cracks and since then the opposition party has been losing ground, giving the PDP ample opportunity to take the lead. With over 7 months still to go, much can still change, but momentum has certainly shifted. The rebasing exercise in February, which doubled the size of Nigeria’s economy, has left observers in no doubt as to the country’s economic potential but the stakes represented by such potentially competitive general elections are quite high for the economy. The new CBN Governor Godwin Emefiele has said the apex bank will closely monitor individuals’ and government spending in the lead up to the elections, but the broader risks to business of social unrest and political instability, given the already ongoing bloody insurgency in the North-East, remain very present.   Read more

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