Blog Post
Blog Post

Election Watch Update – March 2014

Featured image

 

Our last report on Nigeria’s forthcoming elections pointed to the likelihood of increased fluidity between the two major parties as the elections draw nearer; recent events support that view. We listed money and violence as two things to watch in this election year; sadly our fears about security in the North-East have proved to be valid while a sudden development in the Central Bank adds to concerns over the potential for rampant patronage spending this year.

 

Nigeria Election Watch March 2014 - Speed Read

 

Ongoing Party Politics

  • Increased fluidity between the ruling party and the main opposition party
  • Former VP Atiku Abubakar leaves PDP for APC
  • Planned defection of 11 senators from PDP to APC held up by court case
  • PDP regains majority in House of Representatives (has 178 members to APC’s 168)
  • Original party leaders of APC in Kwara and Adamawa defect to PDP

Stability & Security

  • Increasing Boko Haram violence may be linked to splinter groups protecting political interests

Money

  • Opposition delays important decisions in the National Assembly as negotiation tactic; seeks to reduce liquidity
  • CBN Governor suspended, replacement named

Things to Watch

  • Several changes in the Cabinet with more expected
  • National Conference takes off

Download: Nigeria Election Watch Update-March 2014pdf32

Recent Blog Posts
Sep
09
Kenya rehabilitated; and other US overtures to Africa

In the first week of August 2014, the eyes of the African continent were firmly fixed on Washington, with President Obama hosting forty-five African Presidents in the largest U.S. political summit on Africa in history. This was especially so in Kenya due to the frosty relationship Kenya and the West have had since the election of Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto in March 2013. The west’s perceived backing for Mr Raila as well as support for the ongoing trials at the ICC created a climate of distrust between the Kenyatta administration and the west. Read more

Aug
29
Nigeria – What next for the Paradox that is Africa’s Biggest Economy?

April’s rebasing exercise saw Nigeria’s economy more than double in size to $510bn, surpassing South Africa for the first time. The country is now the biggest recipient of FDI in Africa and every ambitious multinational seeks exposure to its 170m+ population. Read more

Aug
22
South Africa’s conundrum part 1: ANC is caught between a rock and the EFF

Just three months after the end of the South African elections, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) has proven to be a major thorn in the side of the ANC. The political clash between the EFF and ANC plays out like a conflict between an elephant and a mouse, with the ANC elephant appearing very fearful of new political party, EFF. Whilst the ANC saw a slight decrease in its electoral majority it still enjoys a comfortable position in parliament with over 60% of the seats compared to the EFF’s xxx%. This will allow it to inform policy direction in the country. Once again the party has been given a five year opportunity to turn around the country’s socio-economic situation and achieve the long sought transformation lamented for since the end of apartheid. However, despite its dominance in the South African political sphere and the largess of state resources at its disposal, the ANC has reacted to the EFF in manner that suggests they have been shaken by the issues brought up by the fledgling political party. Read more

Aug
08
Voices from Washington

This week’s US-Africa Leaders’ Summit promises to be an important turning point in US relations with Africa. Secure in his last term President Obama has made a move that goes a long way in ensuring that the United States is not cut out of the final frontier of economic growth, Africa. While this may be a late move by the United States - better late than never. Read more

Jul
28

Six months after we first presented our initial analysis on the parties and people shaping the run-up to Nigeria’s 2015 elections, including the arrival on-scene of the All Progressives Congress (APC) as the most substantive challenger to the ruling Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) since 1999, we examine how the two major parties are faring in some of the key states and geopolitical zones and provide insight into the current critical political changes that indicate the scales are now tipping in favour of the PDP. In that first note we had alluded to the fault lines within the APC and their potential to be the party’s undoing unless properly managed by its leadership. The defection of some state party leaders to the ruling PDP opened up those cracks and since then the opposition party has been losing ground, giving the PDP ample opportunity to take the lead. With over 7 months still to go, much can still change, but momentum has certainly shifted. The rebasing exercise in February, which doubled the size of Nigeria’s economy, has left observers in no doubt as to the country’s economic potential but the stakes represented by such potentially competitive general elections are quite high for the economy. The new CBN Governor Godwin Emefiele has said the apex bank will closely monitor individuals’ and government spending in the lead up to the elections, but the broader risks to business of social unrest and political instability, given the already ongoing bloody insurgency in the North-East, remain very present. Read more

Jul
17
Electronic campaigns and social media elections, the frontier of smart politics

Social media, governance and politics increasingly go hand in hand these days. In Nigeria, politicians are joining the online community in droves to communicate with their audiences. They are quick to tell you that though the online community does not vote, they are a key demographic who shape and influence perception. The only problem with this, is that social media users on the continent are typically a small portion of the population, middle class and educated. Elitist is often the label thrown on politicians who are involved in extensive engagement with the online constituency as the offline majority feel they are excluded from conversations about their welfare and policies that affect them. Read more


^ Back to Top